Reverse the engines!!
2020 is a Surprise PIK Year , A Payment In Kind Year. Just like 1983 and into 84. No CRP will be used…. just good old supply and demand.
Idle the acres and up to 140 million acres go to Federal Set Aside.....if China is not going ahead with orders or a doubling of orders that will raise commodity prices well above the cost of production on 400 million acres.
The Target goal for farm profits is ($4.50 to $5.00 and up to $6.00 corn, Cotton 75 cents per lb. and HRWW at $7.00 per bushel, Spring Wheat at $8.00 per bushel , Soybeans $11.00 per bushel).
We now have a surplus of grain coming in 2020. Free Enterprise farmers are cutting back on Chickens (50% reduction in workers), Potatoes (25% reduction in Washington State) and Produce ( No farm workers available, lack of demand). Milk is being dumped and dairy herds are coming to the end in size with the least productive milking cows falling out to the feedlots or straight to slaughter.
In 2020, every free enterprise commodity has a new price coming since the production of commodities must reflect the cost of production.
In 2020, 2021 and 2022 our USDA program commodities also must have a new price.
Since we are spending capital T, Trillions of dollars to save the Corona Virus induced economic failure. We must protect the base root of America, The farmers, their land and their ability to payback debt.
Over 30% of our USA economy is based on feeding, clothing and providing energy for people.
This once in lifetime economic overhaul is best done with a Federal Program to adjust prices and stops the production of agricultural products that our population does not need or want.
Don’t tell China…..we want to surprise them.
A Three Year to Five Year Plan, This is a national priority we must pay attention right now. Get rid of the surplus potential that was not planned for. The excess production is not going to China and start working on the actual cost of production to raise crops by reducing seed costs and fertilizer costs which are out of control and subject to 2 or 3 Oligarchs…quit feeding the enemy and move back away from the Oligarchs like Koch, CF, Mosaic, Nutrien, Dupont and Monsanto.
In 2020, 2021 and 2022, Every acre must produce at maximum efficiency with 40% of the land in “Set Aside” for 2 years and ready to go in 2022.
If China continues to fail why should we? The Chinese are going to kill us all. Forget them.
Then we Americans and Canadians as matter of National Security will idle the acres at the most unlikely of times....June 30 to July 15.
No-tillage, Record Yields and highest quality production in Garden City, Hugoton, KS, Goodland, KS, Shelton, NE and St. John, Washington.
The Chinese can still buy our commodities at any time...but they must buy based on the new price of Corn, Wheat and Cotton because of PIK…that new price comes in August for fall 2020….. that is about double to around $5.00 to $6.00 for corn to get farmers profitable enough that we can idle land. What is the true and best price for fiber? Let’s talk about the weather risk of cotton? Cotton at 75 cents to 90 cents per lb. would be right? Wheat, Winter and Spring at $7.00 to $8.50 per bushel? These prices will allow producer to idle land, make debt payments and get ready for a great 2022….rather than suffering for another 10 years.
American Producers of Commodities need a management change in China. There must be a change no matter what to bring democracy to the Chinese people.
North American economies are going to have too much grain and the USDA knows it.…and there is no need for Ethanol production at 38% of a giant crop. The price of ethanol will go up with a good price for corn if we set aside 40% of our corn acres. Ethanol is the lowest GHG emission source to clean up our air. http://www.exactrix.com/Broadcast_03_16_2017.html
Ethanol long term with Exactrix Technology can out compete carbon based fuels 2 and even 3 to 1 for GHG reduction. Wind powered ammonia fertilizer with on farm storage is coming and Exactrix applications of uniform nutrients reduces Nitrous Oxide emissions by placing TAPPS and TAPPKTS uniformly and very deep in the soil.
PIK is another way to get the Chinese up to the table and pay the price related to the cost of production.
Cut back the supply since we have no orders with profitability…. and let the importers figure it out.
American producers must work on lowering cost of production.
The USDA must have the leadership retrained since this is a war.
Nebraska high speed banding in Seed Corn Production at Shelton, NE.
A review of too much high quality food.
The USA and Canada are the best in world at fast transportation, BNSF,UP, CN, and CP export to western and southern coastal ports.
We are raising food of highest quality for export and there must be human food demand at a reasonable price.
We are going to lose a whole generation of young farmers and scientists if we do not pay attention now. The scenario is similar to 1985 to 1995 with the critical loss of outstanding agronomists and the closure of the TVA. Many young farmers did not start in this time period and moved into more stable forms of employment.
Our farmers must make a profit without interference from China. All of the trade war discussions should be related to the cost of production, land health and value to future crops, weather risk, plus a critical profit to pay down debt to keep farming families together for 3 and 4 generations at a time.
Commercial Fertilizer and GMO Seed must take a back seat. Our USDA administration has missed the key point. We do not need a constant full court press on the production of crops. Sometimes it is just as good to lay back and keep your full profit potential in play.
Keep producing at maximum production on 60% of the land, keep building soil health, keep paying down debt and keep adding equipment and methods that lower the cost of production. In 2020 to 2022 we have a new era where land needs to be set aside for future years. That 40% off the land needs to be in PIK, Set Aside by June 30 to July 15th of 2020.
Farmers need to make money to pay suppliers. One of those suppliers are the land owners. Let’s go for farm profitability on a scale back that may reduce land values for the short term but keep our producers on the same land producing and building soil health. Let’s consider better land leases that reflect good times and bad times. Lets renegotiate farm land leases for the land that must be idled.
Keep in mind….we are not in a race to run up land values nor drop them into the basement overnight. Land values are totally related to production profits. If outside investors in land have placed their bets wrong, so be it. We cannot support land values upward trend unless land values can also drop in downward trend. Only the crop producer determines the value of the land and not the speculator or the land owner. As a country we must idle land to protect the American Farmer in times of war. That is a lot different than World War 2 for sure.
If farmers can make money…then land values will not drop as fast or as far. Land leases must reflect cash flow and profitability of the producer when at war.
You can study PIK , Set Aside, Payment In Kind here. https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=42745
We have a tool and we need a surprise PIK program from USDA just like the Chinese sourced Surprise Corona Virus. The food supply is at risk.
2020, The PIK year. On June 30 to July 15 we can move to the PIK program....allow 60% of the land to be propagated as a full season corn crop or a Spring Wheat Crop or Cotton Crop to some final point where the fertilizer, seed, and machinery dealers can be paid.
The 60% remaining crop goes for typical US and Canadian Markets. The price will now be high enough that the North American farmer can make money with PIK ....the critical technology production machinery companies will see a big change.
We must PIK the remaining acres and yet maintain potential for years to come....and watch the price move upward for the remaining growing crop. Some crops like Soybeans which are way overproduced. The USDA must consider even higher acreage rates of 66% PIK of soybeans. There is always next year and we need to stop kidding America ‘s taxpayers, we have enough grain.
On June 30th we must idle at least 40% of the acres....or about 140 million acres goes to PIK or Payment In Kind.
We can improve our agricultural soils with No-tillage application of nutrients and use cover crops to drive production higher in set aside years that follow. Goodland, KS, March 6, 2020
We need a three year to five year plan. For 2020, Starting in late June and into mid July, We can maintain the 40% set aside land as a No-tillage cover crop of corn, soybeans, wheat and peas. Land that can be protected and biologically strengthened for future crops . We will have with much higher yield potential down the line in 2021 with reduced fertilizer use, and again in 2022 with full recharge land protected by cover crops. Why feed the enemy with our livelihood declining because of it? There is no need to consume high cost fertilizer and $100 per acre GMO seed inputs that the North American producers are raising at a loss. Every production acre needs to make good money on 60% of the land in 2020. Set Aside works well in 2020 because of No-tillage cover cropping.
For Corn Growers with livestock they can harvest Set Aside and terminated corn stover taking about 50% of the stover above the ear leaf (low nitrate). We need to protect our livestock and provide corn stover as feed.
Kansas Cover Crop Of Exceptional Value, Winter Triticale and Winter Canola one of thee best choices to protect the land for next year….and also two crops that are low cost to produce. These are flexible crops that are tougher than nails in difficult weather. The two crops can be harvested for grain and oil or taken out early as only a cover crop.
Soybean residue must be left in the field since soybeans are tremendously erosive and the land will require a blended cover crop to absorb the extra nutrients produced by the legume.
Rolled and pelleted peas, barley and wheat can go to hog production and beef production. Start feeding chickens and turkeys small grains.
Reconsider a great perennial crop like alfalfa in combination with small grains for feeding and reduce the mobile nitrogen fertilizer usage.
Make every effort to leave pre-historic carbon in the ground for future generations. Make every effort to support reduction of GHG.
Start feeding wheat, barley and peas to bovine livestock. The residues to remain in the field. We need to maintain our 105 million head cattle herd (12 million moving to slaughter at all times). Protein is king. Highest quality beef and packing must remain. Our high quality cattle herd must be maintained due to the difficult long duration rebuild of our world famous Great Plains cattle herd.
Park the ethanol plants that cannot compete and pay them with corn and Milo from PIK. Let the inefficient Ethanol plants buy corn low and watch PIK drive the price to $5.00 per bushel.
Limit imports of ethanol into the US. Only corn wheat, barley, soybeans and dry peas belong in our system.... If the Canadians would participate we can get out of the Trade War in 24 to 36 months. Let the Canadians know that they must participate to improve prices and keep all our North American farmers profitable. Our farmers must come first to build economic strength in the USA.
These people are not our friends over the next few years.
Play the PIK card again with a Feb. 15 announcement...if China is not going to buy we will PIK the appropriate acres. This might be 10% and it might be 50%.
Land values should not drop significantly, maybe 10%….and livestock prices should recover well.
2022 or 2023 Crop year….back to free enterprise farming but always with the Cloudy Day solution of Surprise PIK.
We can recover quick with PIK… North American producers can pay down debt and remain locked and loaded for the good times.
CRP should not be considered as it destroys infrastructure, farming families, and communities. CRP destroys manufacturing and produces little long term value since No-tillage takeout has not been implemented.
Let em starve in China….Henry Kissinger, Gary Locke, Richard Nixon forgot about the Communist Chinese Party and their need to rule the world.
African Swine Virus, Sars, and now Corona or Covid 19….. China has the wrong priorities and very poor scientists (or Biological Warriors) and sour politics.
Stay out of those sweet and sour Chinese restaurants and take your education needs to the business schools that recognize the Chinese problem….The Chinese Communist Party and the lack of freedom of information and the Four Basic Freedoms of FDR.
Bad Bat Meat…Wild Animals and Wet Markets ….or just bad leaders and biological warfare?
In the US this food supply problem was figured out from the era of the Oregon Trail of 1845 to about 1920.
In America our citizens started with bad food and health system that needed scientific help.
A bad food and water supply was finally improved. “The Poison Squad” figured it out. By 1938 the FDA was established.
There is no reason why China could not have copied the USA model developed by Dr. Harvey Wiley of Purdue and the USDA and later the Good Housekeeping Magazine Seal of Approval…and the finally the FDA. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvey_Washington_Wiley
Our great USDA food inspection programs are on the outlook for Typhoid to Trichinosis. Also Cholera, Dysentery, Botulism, Salmonella, E-coli, Norovirus, are always present in the food supply, not out of control but always present. Our system has worked well and saved lives.
China could have ordered some of the best pork in the world as their hog system failed in 2019. Over 1/4th of the world hog herd died at 300 million to 350 million dead animals from African Swine Virus, ASV.
16 17 18
Our USDA inspected pork is always available around the world…the USDA Inspected and Graded pork, from Beemer, Nebraska, and packed via Smithfield, Seaboard, Tyson, JBS or Cargill….at about 50 cents per pound at market (35 cents to the North American producer today). All through 2018 and 2019 our high quality, US, No. 1, pork was available at a very low price. China failed to respond. China responded with a Bat Meat Virus by December that is causing the World Economy to collapse with no answer to the disease. For years to come we will killing off our population with this runaway Wuhan sourced virus.
Our 100 million herd pork supply is one of the greatest
production scenes in the world.
Why eat wild bat meat?.. when you have USDA Inspected and Certified US. No. 1 Pork from, Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas. Chicken from Arkansas. USDA Prime Beef from across the Great Plains from Texas to North Dakota. No African Swine Virus in the USDA production system. We have some great Vet schools that track animals from birth to slaughter.
When you start losing family members to the Corona Virus and you personally watch the kill-off of great businesses….. it is war.
And China friendly Biden is the last choice.
I envision a different kind of war….by July of 2020.
A change in management in China is coming, let the people of China find a better leader and a better system. They are surrounded by successful democracy. Why not take a look.
No more cheap high quality food from the US and North American producers. Slow the Chinese down with surprise attack of PIK.
China can buy USDA Inspected Beef, Pork, Chicken of the highest quality at any time….but be aware a surprise is coming.
We will call it, “The Wild Bat Meat War”
Initially, SARS and COVID-19 viruses both jumped from animals to humans. Horseshoe bats have been implicated in SARS and again in COVID-19. As the World Health Organization (WHO) stated in a February 2020 report, “Bats appear to be the reservoir of COVID-19 virus.”
In 2002, these bats were sold in China’s wet markets – places where live animals were sold for food. The SARS outbreak occurred in Guangdong province and has been linked to its wet markets. By 2019, horseshoe bats were no longer sold in the wet markets.
Nor do they live in the wild near Wuhan. As Chinese researcher Huabin Zhao, Department of Ecology, Hubei Key Laboratory of Cell Homeostasis, College of Life Sciences, Wuhan University pointed out in Science, “COVID-19 was linked to horseshoe bats, which do not hibernate in cities in China.” They are used in biomedical research, however, and Wuhan, the city in which COVID-19 originated, has two such labs.
Researchers investigating the virus’s origins speculate a scientist might have been bitten by a bat and became infected.
Why China will fail http://www.exactrix.com/Broadcast_02_04_2020.html
Never Forget…..We have got it and they don’t, NH3 forming NH4 Directly applied to the land at lowest possible cost and greatly responsible for the North American agricultural success story.
Good Old NH3, Directly Applied As TAPPS and TAPPKTS, Exactrix Global Systems.
Stored in white pressure vessels that increase in value overtime. Guaranteed 82% N, a clear material and of highest crop availability and banded into the soil deep with No-tillage.
U.S. Small Business Administration Administrator Jovita Carranza announced that agricultural businesses are now eligible for SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) and EIDL Advance programs. SBA’s EIDL portal has reopened as a result of funding authorized by Congress through the Paycheck Protection Program and Healthcare Enhancement Act. The legislation, signed into law by the President one week ago, provided additional funding for farmers and ranchers and certain other agricultural businesses affected by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Meeting your formulation needs.www.exactrix.com/TF.htm
Picking your metering systems.www.exactrix.com/EPM.htm
Need more information on advanced crop production.www.exactrix.com/EWAC.htm
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