Rock Solid Optimism with Strength in
Wheat.....Agrimoney.com | China data put ag commodities on
Markets change as
producers get a breather from high nutrient prices….More powerful
economics coming with TAPPS, TAPPKTS and Hydra Hume.
are in the 240 to 275 bushel/A range based on October
15, 2013 reports from irrigated Nebraska and Kansas. Lorin
Koehn reports top yields in the 272 bushel range.
from Lorin’s test plots indicate there is no need to go
above 160 pounds N as NH3 with Exactrix TAPPS.
Best Economics are between 140 to 160 pounds N as NH3 with TAPPS.
Yields go down after 160 pounds N as NH3…With Exactrix TAPPS and
TAPPKTS with Hydra Hume…Yields come up fast and peak with high
Nutrient Use Efficiency.
World Markets are much
more dynamic. As China takes advantage of the Pacific Rim Ports and US
The US corn price has dropped to a wonderful level in the Orient.
has good growth at 7.8%....Cotton, Beans going
to China as demand is driving volume at a good price....and now PNW
wheat moving to market...
are more ships than normal for this time of the year in
Pacific ports. The large grain ships have been spotted the
seaports of Seattle , Tacoma, Grey’s Harbor, and
Portland....the most amount ships in 18 months... moving
corn and beans from Nebraska and Iowa into the orient via the
trans-continental railroad system of UP and BNSF.
Power of the US Rail System. More Exports….the AP says the
high export level is because of the US
drought from last year...The American Farmer answered the price
opportunities and the free markets went to
work...... the supply of the corn and beans is very reasonably
priced based on the 100 million acres of corn driving the corn
price down....whereby 80 million acres is normal in corn
is strong…with South
America showing weak numbers in wheat. Wet conditions in the
Black Earth farming area of Ukraine has reduced seeded winter
of Ogallala irrigated Corn production is between $850 to $1,000
per acre….Some farmers
are caught in a land price squeeze in the corn belt…..and
machinery business has a falling tide.
will be some drop in land values….with farm machinery auctions
giving notice of the agricultural strength.
for a stark reduction in corn acres.....as soybeans become the
TAPPS Formulators and Mustang Tool Bars make nutrients 166% to
200% more crop available.
Rate Site Specific Application at 1% CV of application….allows
up to 10 management zones.
“At any price
commercial fertilizer is too expensive.”
Get a little more and use a little less and there will be 12% more net
margin every year.
Exactrix TAPPS and Mustang No-tillage tool bars with advanced
controllers get the job done.
A new scenario
to announce, supply to be greater than demand.
Cycle appears to be over....with the initial weakness showing between
Sept. 2012 and March of 2013 this year in Argentina....with the Potash
investment in South America falling apart as Vale and the Argentine
government throw in the towel.
Plan for lower
cost NH3 by next spring.....Maybe not locally but worldwide...several
NH3 plants coming on line.
away from US NH3 market as Yara and BASF plan a giant NH3 plant in the
Gulf of Mexico....Australia, Big N or Intect rebuilding a shuttered
plant in Louisiana.....and Egypt Orascom building in Iowa...several
offshore investors build new NH3 plants in the US...including CHS at
Jamestown, North Dakota
reopen at Kenai, Alaska?....as the low cost gas supply improves in
Alaska....and NH3 becomes a supply driven product moving to market
with more supply than demand.
Journal of Commerce
Corp. is doing an assessment of facilities and equipment at its closed
ammonia and urea fertilizer plant at Nikiski, and will have about 50
people at work at the facility, mostly contractor employees, through
late summer and early fall.
company shut down the plant in 2007 when Cook Inlet gas supplies
tightened, but the uptick in exploration and new development work has
encouraged Agrium to take a look at whether the plant could be
reopened, said Steve Wendt, the company’s manager for the facility.
this point Agrium is only evaluating the state of existing equipment.
The company is not making any decision whether to resume operations at
the facility at this time,” Wendt said.
most important is whether enough new gas is available, and Agrium
understands that the needs of regional utilities must be met first, he
Phosphate supply building.....some
special news in Morocco to build Super Phos for export.
greatest mineable phosphate deposit on earth.
table below summarizes the plants, products and approximate capacities
of the most recently built complexes.
Phosphore II (Safi)
Phosphore III & IV (Jorf Lasfar)
units, each with a capacity of 1750 tons/day
lines, each with a capacity of 2300 tons/day
units, each with a capacity of 500 tons/day
lines, each with a capacity of 500 tons/day
units, each with a capacity of 400 tons/day
the construction of Maroc-Phosphore V and VI and two other complexes
at Layoun and Ras Sim, OCP plans to be producing 24 000 ktpa
phosphoric acid by the year 2000.
TAPPS and TAPPKTS….In No-tillage Application. Two National Awards.
Supplies of Phosphate at Mine Verte.
2010…The project will
be called the Mine Verte, or "green mine," and it will be a
fantasyland glorifying the country's mineral inheritance. The plans
are grand, in the Dubai style. As is the fashion these days in Arab
monarchies, the Mine Verte will be environmentally sustainable, thus
the "green." Fossils hidden in OCP warehouses will be
displayed in a sparkling museum powered by wind and sun. A depleted
mine will be transformed into gardens, performance spaces, and housing
for OCP employees and other visitors, all designed by top French and
Moroccan architects working with London-based environmental
consultants BDSP. Plans for a "mega-amusement park" on the
premises include an equestrian center, a cable car, and an indoor ski
slope on a pile of mine waste. Even bungee jumping made the list; the
King is a thrill-seeker, fond of jet-skis and sports cars, who once
flew his Aston Martin DB7 to London for repair. In all, the Mine Verte
will be a glittering monument to geologic good fortune.
Phosphate, when used as
fertilizer, is the irreplaceable engine powering modern agriculture,
and its reserves are in decline almost everywhere except Morocco. Most
phosphate mines, including those in the U.S., which produces 17
percent of the global supply, have been in a downward spiral for the
last decade, running out of quality rock and hindered by environmental
regulation. That has forced companies to look farther afield for
additional supplies. Earlier this year, Mosaic spent $385 million for
a 35 percent stake in a Peruvian mine to supply rock to its phosphate
operations in the U.S. and South America. Meanwhile, Australia's
mining giant BHP Billiton (BHP)
has been threatening to take over Canada's PotashCorp (POT),
a major supplier of both potash and phosphate.
Only your imagination limits your progress.”
Exactrix owners see
even more powerful economics with NH3 since storage on the farm makes
the decision to fill-up highly profitable.
only use 60% of the university recommendation for N.
Storage and handling
is much less at 60% total tons and therefore storage is the secret to
low cost production.
In a falling market
Urea, URAN and UAN are way overpriced since these higher cost
materials come from high priced base root ammonia…the 2nd
and 3rd tier products are in a price and margin squeeze.
Directly applied NH3 application is always the winner in a falling
deliveries are not a problem.
The marketer of NH3
has no storage and delivery must be made. The weakness of
marketing fertilizer is storage.
On farm storage allows
powerful economics in falling prices…because the producer has the
storage and the marketer comes calling to find a home for the NH3.
Producers with on farm
storage can wait it out….no need to rush to the fill-up…let the
Keep your NH3
tanks at 50%...lower prices are predicted 70% of time by next spring.
NH3 in 2015 should
be in the $300 to $400 per ton range. 2016 to 2017 indicative of $250
per ton as more plants come on line.
Kansas….Montezuma Tool Bar in No-tillage at Lyons, KS. Banding at 7
inch depth at 12.5 mph.