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08
June 2023
By
Tarso Veloso, Kim Chipman and Isis Almeida
Renewable Diesel Bubble Begins to Burst as Costs Spark
Pullback
![](images/images_06_14_2023/Chart5%20copy.jpg)
![](images/images_06_14_2023/Chart6%20copy.jpg)
(Bloomberg) -- The US renewable diesel
rush is losing steam as soaring costs eat into profits, prompting the
world’s top crop trader and North America’s largest energy company to
pull back on planned investments.
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Agricultural behemoth Cargill Inc. said it has suspended plans
to build a giant soybean-processing plant that would have provided
feedstock to the renewable diesel industry due to “shifting market
dynamics.” Exxon Mobil Corp. has meanwhile canceled a deal to buy the
green fuel from Global Clean Energy Holdings Inc., a company that said
it’s facing project delays in part from lack of skilled workers.
The retrenchment is a setback for an industry that expected a
boost from President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, the largest
investment in energy and climate in the US. Renewable diesel — made
from crops and animal fat — is chemically equivalent to the
petroleum-based fuel, and has been heralded as the best solution to
reduce carbon emissions in hard-to-electrify heavy road transport.
But surging commodity and labor costs have boosted the price
tag to build facilities when proposed government mandates to blend
biofuels into diesel and gasoline have failed to meet industry
expectations. That’s putting at risk billions of dollars in expansion
plans that were expected to fuel a sevenfold increase in American
green diesel production by 2025 from 2020 levels.
“Processors continue to be frustrated by delays, which include
shortages of skilled construction labor, the availability of steel and
unexpected cost increases brought on by supply chain issues,” said
John Jansen, vice president of marketing at United Soybean Board,
responsible for promoting American soybeans.
Global biofuel investments totaled $5.9 billion last year, the
second-highest amount in more than a decade, according to BloombergNEF.
Renewable diesel attracted 93% of last year’s funding. In 2021,
spending totaled $7.7 billion.
Billions of dollars have also poured into oilseeds crushing.
Still, some 30% of the additional 2.2 million bushels a day of
soybean-processing capacity won’t be operating by 2026, industry
consultant Gordon Denny said this week in a presentation to US soy
buyers in Indonesia.
Building a soybean processing plant and edible oil refinery now
costs about 20% to 25% more than two years ago, according to Denny.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Juan
Luciano said last month that the expansion in renewable diesel will be
bumpy, and added that not all plants announced “will come on the exact
year.”
Processing soybeans to make the cooking oil used in renewable
diesel has become less profitable. That’s because sky-high prices of
everything from soy to canola oil following Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine curbed demand. To make matters worse, US government mandates
proposed in December fell far short of industry expectations.
Cargill put its plan to build a soybean processing plant in
Hayti, Missouri “on pause due to many shifting market dynamics,” a
company spokesperson said Wednesday. The facility was expected to be
the biggest to come online by 2026.
Building plans were put on hold after the Minneapolis-based
trader bought family-owned soybean processor Owensboro Grain Company
in January, reducing its need for a costly new facility, according to
people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because
the details aren’t public.
Exxon canceled its contract with GCE on May 19, according to a
regulatory filing. The Texas oil giant said in an emailed statement
that the move stems from “continued delays and mismanagement,” a claim
the California-based company rejects. GCE, which is contesting Exxon’s
move, has said its project is delayed due to issues including material
shortages.
Read More: Sinking Soybean Oil Signals Renewable Diesel’s
Dimming Prospects
Some are still positive. Bunge Ltd.’s Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl said in a February interview that government mandates were
more a reflection of what the Environmental Protection Agency thought
the feedstock availability would be, rather than actual demand from
the energy industry.
“The US farmer will find a way to grow soybeans,” Neppl said.
“We will find a way to get the feedstocks to those to those plants.”
The White House has been reviewing the EPA’s plan to set the
amount of biofuels to be blended into diesel and gasoline for
2023-2025. The agency is under a court-ordered deadline to set the
quotas by June 14.
Read More: Green Diesel Firms Urge Biden to Lift Mandate as
Deadline Looms
“If EPA fails to raise the biomass-based diesel volumes, it
will certainly impact prices for farm commodities and market
opportunities for our producers,” said Kurt Kovarik, vice president of
federal affairs with Clean Fuels Alliance America, adding that soy
values could fall as much as 13% if the rules aren’t meaningfully
changed.
--With assistance from Jennifer A. Dlouhy.
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