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Green’ hydrogen price dropping faster than expected
By Jack Burke07
April 2021
BloombergNEF (BNEF) now believes the cost of hydrogen made from
renewable electricity is set to fall faster than it previously
estimated, driven by dropping solar PV electricity costs. Renewable
hydrogen should now cost less than H2 made from natural gas with
carbon capture and storage in all modeled markets by 2030, according
to its analysis.
BNEF’s research contains some significant findings for hydrogen
producers and consumers around the world, as well as coal and gas
companies:
Green hydrogen can be cheaper than natural gas: ‘Green’ hydrogen from
renewables should get cheaper than natural gas (on an
energy-equivalent basis) by 2050 in 15 of the 28 markets modeled,
assuming scale-up continues. These countries accounted for one-third
of global GDP in 2019.
‘Blue’ hydrogen undercut by green: In all of the markets modeled,
‘green’ hydrogen should get cheaper than both ‘blue’ hydrogen (from
fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage - CCS) and even polluting
‘gray’ hydrogen from fossil fuels without CCS.
85% cost decline coming: The costs of producing ‘green’ hydrogen from
renewable electricity should fall by up to 85% from today to 2050,
leading to costs below $1/kg ($7.4/MMBtu) by 2050 in most modeled
markets.
Cheaper solar behind the decline: The above costs are 13% lower than
our previous 2030 forecast and 17% lower than our old 2050 forecast.
Falling costs of solar PV are the key driver behind the reduction. We
now think that PV electricity will be 40% cheaper in 2050 than what we
had thought just two years ago, driven by more automatic
manufacturing, less silicon and silver consumption, higher
photovoltaic efficiency of solar cells, and greater yields using
bifacial panels.
![](images/images_03_17_2022/pic1.png)
“We build Green Hydrogen. We Ship
Green Anhydrous
Ammonia.” Green Play Ammonia, GJS 3/17/2022
“Such low renewable hydrogen costs could completely rewrite the energy
map,” said Martin Tengler, lead hydrogen analyst at Bloomberg NEF. “It
shows that in future, at least 33% of the world economy could be
powered by clean energy for not a cent more than it pays for fossil
fuels. But the technology will require continued government support to
get there - we are at the high part of the cost curve now, and
policy-supported investment is needed to get to the low part.
“By 2030, it will make little economic sense to build ‘blue’ hydrogen
production facilities in most countries, unless space constraints are
an issue for renewables. Companies currently banking on producing
hydrogen from fossil fuels with CCS will have at most ten years before
they feel the pinch. Eventually, those assets will be undercut, like
what is happening with coal in the power sector today.”
“On one hand the reduction in the forecast was surprising, on the
other hand not. This is how it goes with clean energy. Every year it
gets cheaper, faster than anyone expects. The key driver is the
falling cost of solar PV electricity. We now think solar PV power will
be 40% cheaper by 2050 than what we had thought just two years ago.”
Green Play Ammonia™, Yielder® NFuel Energy.
Spokane, Washington. 99212
www.exactrix.com
509 995 1879 cell, Pacific.
Nathan1@greenplayammonia.com
exactrix@exactrix.com
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