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August 22, 2022
John Fitzgerald Weaver
EV shipping is set to blow internal
combustion engines out of the water
Modeling 5 to 10 GWh electrified
containerships, researchers find that 40% of routes today could be
electrified in an economically viable manner, before considering
environmental costs.
![](images/images_08_26_2022/boatEV.image_.main_-1200x688.jpg)
The first
electrified “large” ship - the 4.3 MWh Bastø Electric Ferry.Image:
Bastø Fosen
Researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory have released a study which examines “the
technical outlook, economic feasibility, and environmental impact of
battery-electric containerships.”
Breaking
from previous studies, the researchers have classified the volume of
space housing the batteries as an opportunity cost, rather than a
fixed technical constraint. After modeling a wide variety of
containership sizes, as well as 13 major world trade routes, the
research suggests that more than 40% of the world’s fleet of
containerships could be electrified “cost-effectively and with current
technology,” by the end of this decade.
TCP (total
cost of propulsion) by ship type, route length, current (a)
and future (b) battery pricing:
![](images/images_08_26_2022/boatEV.image_.1.jpg)
In graph
‘a’, (above left), the authors show the
current
viability of containership electrification, based on ship size and
length of voyage. The gray and white areas of the graphs represent the
shipping routes where the electrification of containerships would
immediately lower shipping costs.
Using only
technology available for purchase today, nearly all ships with routes
shorter than 2,000 kilometers are economically advantageous, and ships
with routes as long as 3,000km are economically viable.
Graph ‘b’,
(above right), projects that price reductions to “near future“ battery
technology are expected to roughly double the economic viability and
range of electrified containerships.
Crucially,
this research demonstrates that electrified containerships have an
economic advantage over the internal combustion engine (ICE),
even when the costs of environmental
and health damages are excluded.
The
differences in TCP are contrasted in graph ‘a’
(ICE) vs graph ‘b’
(electrified):
![](images/images_08_26_2022/boatEV.image_.2.jpg)
The
authors present estimates of air pollution damages and the social cost
of carbon for both ICE, (above left), versus electrified
containerships, (above right). The gray bars in the chart above show
that ICE containerships cause damages equal to or greater than three
times the ship’s costs.
An
electrified containership will also cause some environmental damage,
however, the estimates of electrified ship’s air pollution, and the
social cost of carbon, are only 1/12th that of an ICE ship.
In a
future in which the costs of large ICE containerships will continue
rising, as electrified containerships become increasingly cost
effective, the authors posit that ICE ships (below, left) will be
grossly more expensive than electrified containerships (below, right).
![](images/images_08_26_2022/boatEV.image_.3.jpg)
The
authors show that at current battery prices, the electrification of
trade routes less than 1,500 km is economical, and has minimal impact
to ship carrying capacity. And when the authors include environmental
costs, the economical range skyrockets to 5,000 km.
A 5,000 km
containership would require approximately 6.5 GWh of LFP batteries.
The
average cost of lithium-ion batteries has
plummeted 89% since 2010,
and is expected to reach $50 per kWh in the near future. Assuming a
battery cost of $100 per kWh, the TCP for a battery-electric
containership is already lower than that of an ICE equivalent, for
routes less than 1,000km. And when battery prices reach $50 per kWh,
which is predicted for the near future, electrified ships will be
cost-effective on routes as long as 5,000km.
"The key technical
constraint for battery-electric container shipping is the volume of
the battery system and electric motor relative to the volume occupied
by a vessel’s existing engines, fuel storage and mechanical space.
The extra weight of the BES system is, however, non-trivial in determining
a vessel’s power requirements."
Battery
chemistry is another key factor in configuring electric cargo ships.
Vessels that take short, frequent trips have lower power requirements,
but would need to recharge quickly. These vessels should benefit from
the high charge rates and long life cycles of lithium iron phosphate (LFP)
batteries. Long range ships already spend more time docked in each
port – typically well over 24h – and could take advantage of the
relatively low cycle life and high energy density of nickel manganese
cobalt oxide batteries.
The Yara
Birkeland is an 80m long, 7MWh electrified autonomous containership
that can hold 120 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), which makes 12
nautical mile trips.
![](images/images_08_26_2022/boatEV.image_.4.png)
For
‘Neo-Panamax’ containerships, (sized to fit through the Panama canal),
routes less than 3,000km actually require LESS space for batteries and
motors than the volume currently occupied by combustion engines and
fuel tanks.
If this
class of ship were to travel 20,000km on a single charge, the
batteries and motor would require 32% of the ship’s carrying capacity,
or 2,500 TEU.
"We find that as
carrying capacity increases, the percentage of total carrying capacity
volume occupied by batteries decreases because larger ships typically
have lower energy requirements per unit of carrying capacity."
The
charging infrastructure for a containership traveling less than
10,000km can be accomplished using less than 300 MW. Containerships
holding 1,000-3,000 TEUs typically spend an average of 31 hours
waiting in line and berthing. The largest ships, holding 10,000-20,000
TEUs, spend an average of 97 hours waiting and berthing.
The
infrastructure required to support such massive charging capacities is
surprisingly affordable, largely due to the efficient logistics of
ports, since berths are typically occupied more than 50% of the time.
At 50% utilization, the researchers modeled that the levelized cost of
a 300MW charging station comes to mere $0.03 per kWh.
None of
this technical viability would exist if it were not for recent and
ongoing improvements to batteries, inverters and electric motors. For
instance, in their models, the researchers assumed ICE “tank-to-wake
efficiency” of 50%, and electric motor and inverter efficiencies of
95% each. Electrified containerships are 80% more efficient than their
ICE counterparts, and use 30% less energy overall.
For
inquiring minds: one gallon of heavy fuel oil (HFO) contains
approximately 150,000btu, equivalent to roughly 44kWh. But since even
the most efficient internal combustion ship engines are
no more than 50% efficient,
a gallon of HFO produces no more than 22kWh of actual propulsion. Most
modern electric motors are now over 90% efficient, and the most
advanced prototypes are approaching
99% efficiency.
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