China's record carbon emissions
expected to peak due to clean energy push, report says | CNN Business
China approved record number of coal plants
in 2022
12
May
2023
By
Laura
He
Hong
Kong
CNN
—
China’s carbon emissions will likely hit a new record in 2023 on the
back of an economic rebound, but a rapid expansion in green energy
will enable its emissions to peak soon, a global energy think tank
said on Friday.
China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gas, saw its carbon
dioxide emissions rise 4% in the first quarter of this year compared
to the same period in 2022, reaching more than 3 billion tonnes,
according to a new report by the Centre for Research on Energy and
Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief. That’s the highest first-quarter
number on record.
The increase was driven by an economic rebound after the end of
China’s zero-Covid policy, economic stimulus measures and weak hydro
generation due to an ongoing drought, the Helsinki-based think tank
said.
“Looking at the rest of the year, the government’s focus on economic
growth means that China’s emissions are likely to reach an all-time
high in 2023, topping the previous peak in 2021,” said Lauri
Myllyvirta and Qi Qin, analysts at CREA.
However, the emissions could peak soon, as China has accelerated its
clean energy push and installed record amounts of solar and wind power
capacity, the analysts pointed out.
“The rapid expansion in low-carbon energy, if sustained, could enable
emissions to peak and enter structural decline, once the post-Covid
recovery has played out,” they said.
Song Weixing/VCG/Getty Images/FILE
China’s economy rebounded in the first quarter of
2023, with GDP growth accelerating
to 4.5%, according to official statistics
released last month. The government previously set
a growth target of “around 5%” for 2023,
although many investment banks have raised their forecasts to above
5.5%.
The largest contributor to rising emissions was electricity
generation. Power output from coal increased by 2% from a year ago,
the report showed. Coal is the main source of energy in China and is
widely used for heating, power generation and steelmaking.
The country has ramped
up coal production since last summer when the
worst heatwave and drought in decades hit hydroelectricity, the
country’s second biggest source of power. Coal production surged 11%
in 2022 from 2021, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
To boost coal imports, China scrapped its restrictions on Australian
coal earlier this year, effectively ending an unofficial ban that
lasted for more than two years. In the first quarter, China’s total
imports of coal soared 96% from a year earlier.
The second biggest reason for rising emissions was the
higher production volumes of construction materials, mainly steel and
cement, the CREA analysts said. That’s mainly because of government
stimulus measures for the manufacturing and construction industries.
“Emissions are likely to grow this year,” the analysts said, as the
government is pursuing a broad-based approach to economic recovery
that seeks to boost exports, manufacturing output and construction, in
addition to consumption.
This will lead to a sharp increase in bank lending and investment,
particularly for manufacturing, transportation and energy production,
they added.
However, China still sees clean energy as its
future. President Xi Jinping restated his
vision for a “green” and “beautiful” China in February and called for
an energy
revolution to achieve carbon neutrality in
the longer term.
Solar installations increased to a record 34 gigawatts (GW) in the
first three months of the year, nearly tripling the previous high of
13GW in the same period of 2022, according to latest figures released
by the National Energy Administration.
New wind power installations also reached a record high. The 10.4GW
added in the three months to March 2023 was an increase of 32% over
the period in 2022, the NEA figures showed.
These sources of power, including renewables and nuclear, exceeded 50%
of China’s installed power capacity in the first quarter, overtaking
fossil fuel-based capacity for the first time in history, the CREA
analysts said.
“When low-carbon power growth matches — and then exceeds — the annual
increase in electricity demand, the sector’s CO2 emissions will peak,”
they said.
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