 Fertilizer
Manufacturers shoot themselves in the foot
The fertilizer
industry is not a freely competitive business as we know.
Their April 1,
2022 prices are only about 93 cents for NH3, 82-0-0 at 1 pound N.
While Solution 32-2-0 is about 15% more at $1.11 per lb of N ….and
urea, 46-0-0 is 11 per cent more at $1.04 per lb of N.
Confirming the
differences should be 150% difference between 32-0-0 and NH3 Nitrogen.
Recent information means is not so recent in your lifetime…when
Natural Gas prices stay low….and why would Nitrogen..jump so
much….Oligarchy….CF, Koch and Nutrien. Koch being the worst.
Our false economy
is simple…it is a shell game. The cost to build NH3 at Dodge City
Kansas varies between 65 dollars to 200 dollars per ton. Which 3.6
cents to 12 cents per lb of N…the markup is 8 times and more. At
$1,650 per ton in Iowa.
Here is another
goofy scenario….it cost too much to raise corn and wheat….so soybeans
lead the way…
USDA: Soybean acres to surpass
corn for third time ever
Getty/iStockphoto/bernardbodo
2022 corn acreage falls 4% from last
year, while all-wheat acres inch 1% higher
Ben Potter | Mar 31, 2022
For only the third time in U.S. history,
farmers are going to plant more soybeans than corn in 2022. USDA’s
prospective plantings report found soybean acreage will rise 4%
from last year to 90.955 million acres – beating the previous
record high set in 2017 of 90.2 million acres. The cut to corn
acreage will result in a combined corn and soybean planted acreage
of 180.4 million acres, just a hair behind last year’s
record-setting high of 180.6 million acres.
High input costs, especially in regions
outside of the Corn Belt, likely contributed to the acreage
switch. As early as January, Farm Futures predicted
soybean acres would eclipse corn acres for only the third time
on record, thanks to input and analysis from our exclusive grower
surveys.
Acre swap
Related:
Dig into the latest USDA report
USDA estimates that corn plantings
will tilt 4% lower this year, to 89.5 million acres, which is
nearly 4 million acres lower (3.87 million) compared to 2021.
Versus a year ago, planted acres are expected to hold steady or
drop in 43 of the 48 estimating states.
“Growers are expected to plant 3.9
million fewer acres of corn,” notes Farm Futures grain market
analyst Jacqueline Holland. “The 2022 projection of 89.5 million
corn acres will be the smallest corn crop since farmers planted
88.9 million acres in 2018. Assuming trendline yields of 181.0
bushels per acre, the 2022 crop could rise to 14.8 billion bushels
– the third largest corn crop in U.S. history.”
“Farm Futures’ balance sheet calculations
project a conservative 2022/23 corn stocks-to-use ratio of 8.6%, which
if realized will be the seventh tightest U.S. corn supply on record,”
Holland continues. “That bullish prospect fueled Chicago Board of
Trade corn futures prices for 2022 crop contracts to 3.5%-4.3% gains
in the report’s aftermath.”
Soybean acres of just below 91.0 million
acres will be a record-breaking effort, if realized. Twenty-four of
the reporting 29 states are expected to hold steady or increase acres
this year.
“A record soybean sowing will inevitably
lead to a record soybean crop if trendline yields are realized this
year,” Holland says. “At 90.2 million acres and 51.5 bpa yields, the
2022 soybean crop will eclipse last year’s high (4.4B bu.) to a
record-setting 4.6 billion bushels.”
But amid South American crop shortfalls,
tight global edible oil supplies, and an expanding biodiesel industry
at home, the extra bushels won’t completely eliminate supply worries,
Holland adds.
“Even though soybean prices fell after
the report’s release, the 2022/23 soybean stocks-to-use ratio is only
projected by Farm Futures to rise 1.7% to 8.2% – the 25th
tightest soybean supply on record,” she says. “As our team predicted,
soaring input costs will limit upward acreage expansion. USDA’s cuts
to 2022 spring wheat reaffirmed that estimation with its 5% annual cut
to 2022 spring wheat acreage, leaving it at 11.2 million acres for the
year.”
All-wheat acres should rise 1% from a
year ago to 47.4 million acres. That includes 34.2 million acres of
winter wheat acres (up 2% from 2021) and another 11.2 million acres of
spring wheat (down 2% from 2021). Durum acres are expected to jump 17%
from a year ago to 1.92 million acres.
“USDA slightly trimmed previous estimates
for winter wheat acreage, though total planted wheat acreage is
expected to rise to 47.4 million acres – a four-year high,” Holland
says. “That will add some breathing room to 2022/23 U.S. wheat stocks,
especially if feed usage creeps lower and global buyers find
alternative – and cheaper – substitutes for Black Sea wheat.”
Wheat futures largely had these
sentiments priced in prior to the report’s release, though the spring
and winter wheat acreage cuts most benefited Kansas City hard red
winter wheat and Minneapolis spring wheat futures, Holland adds.
That leaves combined acres for corn,
soybeans and wheat at 227.8 million acres. Holland says that’s the
seventh-largest combined footprint for the three crops, surpassing
last year’s total by 541,000 acres amid rising soybean and winter
wheat plantings.
With strong cotton prices, acres for that
crop is expected to climb 9% higher year-over-year to 12.2 million
acres. Upland accounts for the vast majority of those plantings, with
12.1 million acres – but American Pima could trend 39% higher from a
year ago, to 176,000 acres.
No stock shocks
“There really weren’t any surprises on
the Quarterly Grain Stocks side of today’s reports,” according to
Holland.
For corn, the agency shows corn stocks
tumbling from 11.647 billion bushels in December down to 7.850 billion
bushels in March. That was also slightly below the average trade guess
of 7.877 billion bushels but a bit above year-ago results of 7.696
billion bushels.
Soybean stocks followed a similar path,
dropping from 3.149 billion bushels in December down to 1.931 billion
bushels in March – staying moderately above year-ago totals of 1.562
billion bushels. Analysts generally expected to see smaller quarterly
stocks, with an average trade guess of 1.902 billion bushels.
Wheat quarterly stocks trended from 1.390
billion bushels in December down to 1.025 billion bushels in March.
Unlike corn and soybean stocks, that total was moderately lower than
year-ago results of 1.311 million bushels. It was also lower than the
average trade guess of 1.045 billion bushels.
“We knew coming into the reports that
wheat supplies were going to be low because of last year’s spring
wheat crop shortfalls,” Holland says. “But we are also starting to see
some diminished usage as high prices create buying resistance. Plus,
USDA had already indicated in the March 2022 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates report that wheat growers have already sold most
of their 2021 wheat crops.”
Green Play Ammonia™, Yielder® NFuel Energy.
Spokane, Washington. 99212
www.exactrix.com
509 995 1879 cell, Pacific.
Nathan1@greenplayammonia.com
exactrix@exactrix.com
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