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August 9, 2023
By Russ Quinn
DTN Retail
Fertilizer Trends
Fuella: two plants
under development
FERTILIZERS SEE LARGE PRICE MOVE LOWER
![](images/images_08_10_2023/GetStoredImage.png)
Anhydrous led the decline in prices. The nitrogen fertilizer was 15%
lower than a month ago with an average price of $638/ton.
OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the week
including the last couple of days of July and the first few days of
August 2023 continue to move lower. All eight major fertilizers were
lower compared to a month ago.
In addition, seven of the eight major fertilizers had a considerable
price move looking back a month. DTN designates a significant move as
anything 5% or more.
Leading the way lower once again was anhydrous. The nitrogen
fertilizer was 15% lower compared to last month and had an average
price of $638/ton.
Anhydrous dropped below the $700/ton level for the first time since
the first week of April 2021. That week the average price was
$692/ton.
Also, double-digits lower was UAN32. The nitrogen fertilizer was 12%
less expensive and had an average price of $411/ton.
The trio of DAP, MAP and urea were all 7% lower compared to last
month. DAP had an average price of $766/ton, MAP $773/ton and urea
$572/ton.
Both DAP and MAP fell below the $800/ton level for the first time in
almost two full years. DAP was last at this level the second week of
October 2021 at $798/ton, while the last time MAP was this low was the
third week of September 2021 when the price was $786/ton.
Potash was 6% less expensive compared to a month earlier. The
fertilizer had an average price of $579/ton. UAN28 was 5% lower
looking back a month and the fertilizer had an average price of
$378/ton.
One fertilizer was just slightly lower compared to the prior month.
10-34-0 was just slightly lower and had an average price of $713/ton.
On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at
$0.62/lb.N, anhydrous $0.39/lb.N, UAN28 $0.68/lb.N and UAN32 $0.64/lb.N.
Decreasing fertilizer prices was the subject of a
University of Illinois farmdocDaily article titled "Weekly Farm
Economics: Fertilizer Prices Continue Year-Long Decline from 2022
Peak" (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/…).
Since peaking in the second quarter of 2022, fertilizer prices have
trended downward.
There are a couple of different reasons for lower fertilizer prices,
according to the report.
The cost of natural gas, the key energy input in the processing of
anhydrous ammonia and other fertilizer products, has trended downward
over the past year after peaking in 2022. In addition, corn prices
have also declined 12% from last year's high of $7.38 per bushel in
June 2022.
"Declining fertilizer prices should, on their own, point to improved
prospects for farm-level returns in 2023 and 2024," the report stated.
Looking ahead to 2024, the extended downward trend in prices might
suggest a wait-and-see approach to 2024 fertilizer needs. However,
natural gas futures indicate market expectations for prices to move
from the current $2 range back to the mid- to high-$3 range over the
next six months, while corn futures suggest prices near or just below
$5 per bushel for the 2024 crop.
"Fertilizer prices are also approaching levels experienced in 2021,"
the report said. "Therefore, market expectations and ongoing risks
suggest considering the pricing of at least a portion of fertilizer
needs for the upcoming year."
All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to one year
ago. 10-34-0 is 20% lower, DAP is 24% less expensive, MAP is 25%
lower, urea is 30% less expensive, potash is 35% lower, UAN28 is 36%
less expensive, UAN32 is 40% lower and anhydrous is 54% less expensive
compared to a year prior.
DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week
to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in
November 2008.
In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can
access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages,
here: https://www.mydtn.com/….
Fertilizer expenses ballooned in 2022 as farmers spent
almost 20% more on nutrients than the year before spending $36.8
billion, according to a recent USDA report. You can read about it
here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Alexis Maxwell, a fertilizer analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence/Green
Markets, will join the DTN Ag Summit Series on Aug. 15 to discuss
what's influencing prices and whether it's a good year to book your
needs early.
She specializes in financial and economic analysis of fertilizer
markets and producers. Prior to joining Bloomberg, Maxwell was a
market analyst at CF Industries and SABIC. While she frequently
presents to investment groups and others in the financial world, she
says she's looking forward to presenting to farmers.
Sign up to hear Alexis's presentation, along with the
rest of the Ag Summit Series: Digital Yield Tour, here: https://www.dtn.com/….
DRY |
Date Range |
DAP |
MAP |
POTASH |
UREA |
Aug 1-5 2022 |
1003 |
1036 |
883 |
812 |
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022 |
952 |
1022 |
877 |
804 |
Sep 26-30 2022 |
947 |
1005 |
874 |
812 |
Oct 24-28 2022 |
930 |
986 |
862 |
827 |
Nov 21-25 2022 |
927 |
972 |
841 |
802 |
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022 |
890 |
909 |
790 |
757 |
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023 |
859 |
865 |
721 |
712 |
Feb 13-Feb 17 2023 |
838 |
857 |
692 |
686 |
Mar 13-Mar 17 2023 |
825 |
821 |
655 |
638 |
Apr 10-14 2023 |
821 |
809 |
642 |
625 |
May 8-12 2023 |
828 |
826 |
627 |
664 |
June 5-9 2023 |
822 |
832 |
618 |
622 |
July 3-7 2023 |
824 |
827 |
619 |
615 |
July 31-Aug 4 2023 |
766 |
773 |
579 |
572 |
|
|
|
|
|
LIQUID |
Date Range |
10-34-0 |
ANHYD |
UAN28 |
UAN32 |
Aug 1-5 2022 |
892 |
1387 |
592 |
679 |
Aug 29-Sep 2 2022 |
866 |
1364 |
576 |
671 |
Sep 26-30 2022 |
861 |
1380 |
581 |
670 |
Oct 24-28 2022 |
759 |
1422 |
580 |
678 |
Nov 21-25 2022 |
753 |
1419 |
583 |
681 |
Dec 19-Dec 23 2022 |
751 |
1360 |
578 |
681 |
Jan 16-Jan 20 2023 |
755 |
1238 |
536 |
634 |
Feb 13-Feb 17 2023 |
754 |
1213 |
483 |
572 |
Mar 13-Mar 17 2023 |
740 |
1059 |
428 |
521 |
Apr 10-14 2023 |
740 |
1003 |
427 |
507 |
May 8-12 2023 |
739 |
910 |
423 |
517 |
June 5-9 2023 |
739 |
787 |
411 |
478 |
July 3-7 2023 |
730 |
752 |
396 |
466 |
July 31-Aug 4 2023 |
713 |
638 |
378 |
411 |
Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com
Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @RussQuinnDTN
(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
Green Play Ammonia™, Yielder® NFuel Energy.
Spokane, Washington. 99212
www.exactrix.com
509 995 1879 cell, Pacific.
Nathan1@greenplayammonia.com
exactrix@exactrix.com
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